Farmer Gripe
Plain talk about the squeeze on family farms

Input Costs and Margins

The Fuel and Fertilizer Double Whammy: A 2026 Growing Season Postmortem

The best time to learn from a hard season is right after it ends. Here is a simple postmortem you can run on your own farm, with your own records.

Illustration for the farm.FM story “Growing Less Food Costs Almost as Much as Growing More”
A farm.FM economics story fits this guide to reviewing a season of high fuel and fertilizer costs. Read “Growing Less Food Costs Almost as Much as Growing More” on farm.FM.

Why run a postmortem?

A postmortem turns a stressful season into a plan. The headline calls out fuel and fertilizer as a double blow, and the size of that blow on your farm can be measured from your own invoices, not from anyone's summary. National price context is available from USDA AMS and BLS, but your own numbers are the ones that matter.

Do it while the memory is fresh and the records are on the desk. Wait until spring and the details blur, and the lessons usually go with them.

Fuel is the line that surprises people most after the fact. Passes, idle time and equipment size all add up, and many farms have never added fuel use per acre. A season of tracking gives you a baseline you can improve on, and FRED price charts help you see how energy costs moved while you were working.

What should you measure?

Pull invoices for fuel and fertilizer and total them by field or enterprise. Calculate cost per acre and cost per bushel or per hundredweight. Compare with the previous season and with your original budget, and note where the gap came from: price, rate, passes or acres.

Then look at yield response. Did the nitrogen you applied show up in the crop? Soil tests, tissue tests and yield maps help answer that. OSU Extension offers guidance on interpreting results for Oklahoma crops.

Consider also what the season did to your equipment. Heavy use under cost pressure can lead to deferred maintenance, and a repair bill next year can cancel this year's savings. Put maintenance in the postmortem too, so that cutting costs now does not create a bigger bill later.

What worked and what did not?

List decisions that saved money, such as early purchase, split application, fewer passes or switching rates, and decisions that did not. Be honest about both. A strategy that worked once can fail the next year, so write down why it worked.

Talk to neighbors, your agronomist and your co-op. Comparing notes across farms reveals patterns that one operation cannot see. The crop calendar guide helps you plan timing for next season.

Write the lessons down on one page and keep it with your budget. A short list you will actually read before buying inputs next year is worth more than a long report that lives in a drawer.

How do you handle the money side?

If the season pushed you into extra borrowing, update your balance sheet and cash flow now and talk to your lender before renewal. Ask about restructuring options and about FSA loan programs if cash is tight. Bring your postmortem; it shows you are managing the problem.

This is general education, not financial advice. A licensed lender or accountant can look at your actual numbers and the Kansas City Fed regional reports give context on credit conditions.

If a lender asks why costs ran over, the postmortem is your answer. A clear account of what happened, what you changed and what you expect next year builds trust at renewal time.

What are the arguments about causes?

Supporters of the view that conflict and energy markets drove the squeeze point to the timing of price moves and the global nature of fuel and fertilizer. Critics respond that supply concentration, demand and earlier cost increases also played a part, and that producers can change some of what they pay.

Both views offer lessons. You cannot control global energy markets, but you can control rates, passes and timing, and you can ask your suppliers hard questions about pricing.

The practical overlap between the two sides matters more than the argument. Everyone agrees you should know your numbers, shop prices and plan for volatility, and those steps cost little compared with the money they can save.

A plan for next season

Set a target cost per acre for fuel and fertilizer and a trigger for each decision: if nitrogen goes above a level, what will you do? If it falls, will you buy ahead? Pre-deciding keeps you from making expensive choices in a panic.

For more reading, farm.FM covers input costs at its agribusiness desk and the lighter side at the satire section, including a farm.FM piece on fuel and fertilizer costs. Check current prices at the source.

If you run cattle, extend the postmortem to hay, feed and fuel for feeding. The ranch beef cattle guide covers forage and feed management ideas that cut costs without hurting herd performance.

Sources and further reading

Ask locally: Ask your agronomist, an OSU Extension specialist or your lender to review your season with you.

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