The Crop That Won’t Pay: Calculating the Break-Even Point in 2026
Break-even math is the least exciting number on the farm and the one that decides the most. Here is how to work out yours before the planter rolls, using your own costs and current market quotes.
What is a break-even point, really?
Break-even is the price you need for each bushel, pound or hundredweight to cover every cost of producing it. Divide total costs by expected yield and you get a number you can hold against the market. If the futures bid, plus your basis, sits below it, the crop loses money at that yield.
Headlines about crops that will not pay are editorial, and prices move. Do not rely on any figure you read online, including ours. Build the number from your own books, then compare it to quotes from your elevator or buyer.
Which costs belong in the calculation?
Start with the obvious: seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, labor, repairs, crop insurance and interest on operating money. Then add the ones people skip. Land rent or the cost of ownership, depreciation on machinery, drying and hauling, and a paycheck for your own labor all count.
Leaving out the second list is how a field looks profitable on paper and still drains the checking account. Be honest about overhead too. A share of the shop, the pickup and the accountant belongs somewhere.
- Seed, fertilizer and crop protection
- Fuel, repairs and hired labor
- Land cost, rent or ownership
- Insurance and interest
- Machinery depreciation and overhead
How do you build it step by step?
Write costs per acre for each crop on a single sheet. Multiply the acre costs by planned acres, add fixed costs, and divide by realistic yield. Use an average yield from your own records, not your best year. For dryland wheat near Enid or sorghum in the Oklahoma Panhandle, weather swings make that average matter.
Then run three versions: a poor yield, a normal yield and a good yield. The spread shows how much cushion you have. OSU Extension publishes enterprise budgets that give you a starting template to adjust, and farmdoc daily often discusses the economics behind crop budgets.
Where do you check prices and costs?
Use your own buyer for local bids, and USDA AMS market news for regional price reports. For cost trends and farm income context, the USDA Economic Research Service publishes data and analysis. Check figures at the source, as they update often.
If you want a crop planning refresher, this crop calendar guide lays out timing, and a farm money planning guide helps with the budget side. Together they keep the spreadsheet tied to the field calendar.
What if the numbers say you will lose money?
First, check the math. Then look at levers: lower-cost inputs, different rotation, rented ground you can drop, crop insurance coverage and marketing plans. Programs such as ARC and PLC may help in some years, and the Risk Management Agency explains crop insurance options. Confirm current terms before relying on either.
Supporters of staying the course argue that a rotation or soil health benefit justifies an acre that barely breaks even. Critics respond that you cannot eat soil health in a loss year. Your own cash position decides which argument wins.
What are the common mistakes in break-even math?
The biggest mistake is using a yield you hope for rather than one you have proven. Another is treating owned land as free. Even if the land is paid off, it has an opportunity cost, since you could rent it out. A third is forgetting that costs and prices are often quoted in different units, so convert carefully between acres, bushels and tons.
Timing errors count too. Costs paid in the fall for next year's crop carry interest, and prices quoted for delivery months away are not the price you will get at harvest. Basis, the gap between futures and your local price, can swing the result as much as the headline market does.
Finally, avoid comparing your number to someone else's. Soil, rainfall, machinery and rent differ from one farm to the next, even among neighbors east and west of Enid.
How often should you redo it?
At least twice a year: before planting and again after input bills arrive. Update it when the market moves or a big cost changes. A living break-even sheet is the cheapest risk tool on the farm.
For more of the farm economics conversation, see farm.FM agribusiness stories and the farming section, and read a farm.FM piece on break-even crop prices.
Sources and further reading
- OSU Extension: Oklahoma State extension
- farmdoc daily: University of Illinois farm economics
- USDA AMS: marketing and market news
- USDA Economic Research Service: farm economy data and analysis
- ARC and PLC: FSA commodity safety-net programs
- USDA Risk Management Agency: crop insurance
Ask locally: Ask an OSU Extension farm management specialist or your lender to review your enterprise budget before you commit acres.